**For many Canadians, the question is no longer just whether they want to own a home, but how to make the numbers work.**

Our team member Madeline recently attended *The State of the Housing Market*, a webinar presented by *Mortgage Professionals Canada*. The session covered the Canadian economy, interest rates, housing activity, mortgage trends, and the risks still shaping the market through the remainder of 2026.
Madeline's takeaway? More optimistic than she expected.
That's not nothing. After a few years of persistent rate pressure, affordability stress, and a lot of "wait and see" energy in the market, a bit of measured optimism is worth paying attention to. Here's what the presenters shared — and what it might mean for you.

The Economy Is Growing, Just Not Quickly

Canada's GDP is expected to grow by roughly 1% to 1.5% through 2026. That's positive, but modest. Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Newfoundland are projected to outperform the national average, while BC and Ontario are expected to lag due to slower population growth and softer housing activity.

The labour market remains resilient. Employment growth has slowed and unemployment has ticked up, but there have been no widespread job losses. That stability matters, because it's what keeps mortgage performance healthy and consumer confidence from tipping.

The major uncertainties haven't gone away: U.S. trade negotiations, reduced immigration targets, and ongoing geopolitical tensions are all still in the mix.

The Bank of Canada Is Waiting It Out

The Bank of Canada is expected to hold its policy rate steady for now. The presenters were careful to note it's still too early to predict whether the next move will be a cut or a hike. Future decisions will depend on inflation, oil prices, trade talks, and global events.

The practical message here is one we share often: building a mortgage strategy around where you think rates are going is a risky game. A strategy built on your budget, your timeline, your tolerance for payment changes, and your overall financial picture is always going to be more useful than a rate prediction.

Prices Are Starting to Stabilize

This is one of the more encouraging signals from the webinar. Housing prices appear to be stabilizing after the declines of the past couple of years. In May, home sales increased month-over-month for the first time in 2026. New listings declined slightly, inventory began to ease, and national average sale prices showed modest year-over-year growth.

Are these signs of a sustained recovery? The presenters were honest: it's too early to know. But it's a different conversation than we were having six months ago.

Regional differences remain significant. Toronto and Vancouver, particularly the condo market, continue to experience the most weakness. Alberta, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada are seeing more balanced conditions.

Across the board, affordability remains the biggest obstacle for buyers.

Some Windows Are Opening for First-Time Buyers

The increase to the insured mortgage cap, from $1 million to $1.5 million, has expanded access to insured financing for some buyers in higher-priced markets. Lower rates and softer home prices have also created opportunities that simply weren't there when both were near their peaks.

That said, the challenges are real, especially in BC and Ontario. Government programs can help at the margins, but they can't fix a supply shortage. Preparation remains the most valuable thing a first-time buyer can do: understanding your credit, your down payment options, and your realistic purchasing range before you start looking makes the whole process much less overwhelming.

Variable Rates Are Back in the Conversation

As rates came down from their highs, variable-rate mortgages became more attractive again. As of March 2026, variable products represented approximately 38% of new mortgage originations. Among borrowers choosing fixed rates, three to five-year terms remained most popular.

Variable rates can offer flexibility and potential savings if rates continue to fall, but they also come with more uncertainty. Fixed rates offer more predictable payments, though they may carry different penalties. There's no universally right answer. What's right depends on you.

The Credit Quality Numbers Are Encouraging, With an Important Caveat

This was the piece that surprised Madeline most. Mortgage delinquencies have increased, but they remain manageable. Average credit scores at the major banks are still above 790, and loan-to-value ratios remain conservative.

Here's the caveat worth noting, because Madeline caught it too: those statistics reflect mortgage portfolios held by Canada's Big Six banks. They don't necessarily represent borrowers working with alternative lenders or private financing. That's part of why the national numbers can look strong while individual files tell a more complicated story. A market can be healthy on average and still have meaningful pressure at the edges.

What This Means for You

The housing market isn't suddenly without risk. But there are real reasons to feel more grounded heading into the second half of 2026 than we've felt in a while.

If you're approaching a renewal, thinking about buying, or just trying to understand where you stand, the best thing you can do is come in with a clear picture of your situation. That means knowing your credit, understanding your available equity, and not waiting until the last minute.

If you'd like to talk through what any of this means for your specific circumstances, I'm always happy to have that conversation.

Get in touch